THE THREE OUTLIERS MOVE TOWARD HILLARY – AT 8:44 A.M. ET:  The three polling holdouts – L.A. Times, TBD/TIFF, and Rasmussen, have, as of this morning, tilted ever so slightly toward Hillary, meaning that the major pollsters are now unanimous in seeing a Hillary victory.

But the margins are so close in those three polls as to be meaningless.  Rasmussen has Hillary up 43-42%, not even close to the magic 50% mark.  IBD/TIFF has Hillary up 42-41%, the first time she has ever led in this poll, which has been the most accurate in recent presidential elections.  L.A. Times has Hillary up 45-44.1%, a difference of less than one percentage point.

Other polls show Clinton well ahead.

Do today's results mean there's a trend toward Hillary?  No.  They simply mean she has made incremental progress.  But she is still below 50%. 

Early voting in several states is actually showing enthusiasm for Trump, but, again, that may simply reflect the zeal of some Trump voters who cast their ballots early.

I wouldn't read much into these numbers at this point.  The CNN/ORC poll shows Clinton up by five, 49-44%.  That's a solid lead, but still places her under 50%.   The American voters' enthusiasm for the "probable winner" is still very much under control.

Two weeks to go.  The key will be in the trending.  If you see all polls moving toward Hillary, it will mean that the Trump "miracle" just isn't happening.  If you see the race tightening, and the three outlier polls moving back to Trump, we could be in for a surprise.

As in all elections, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.  That will depend on turnout.  Who will vote?   Who will stay home?  And will those who vote have told the truth to pollsters?

October 25,  2016